The state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg have caused political upheaval due to the AfD’s results. Exploratory talks on the future formation of a government are still ongoing. An interdisciplinary study as part of the Volkswagen Foundation’s NurtureDEMOS project at the University of Trier and the Centre for Research on Right-Wing Extremism, Democracy Education and Social Integration (KomRex) at the University of Jena has recorded and analyzed attitudes and voting behaviour in the states in the run-up to the state elections. The study offers both political science and psychological insights into the crisis of democracy.
Massive mistrust in democracy, the state and politics
Distrust in state institutions is nothing new among non-voters and on the political fringes. However, the fact that two thirds of these groups state that they have little or no trust in the state shows how massive the mistrust is in this section of the population. The AfD’s share of the vote in all three recent state elections was around 30%, while the proportion of non-voters was over 25%. Voters of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are also suspicious: ,,Voters of the CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP and Left have more trust than distrust overall towards all institutions - except the federal government. The opposite is the case for AfD and non-voters. BSW voters show an increased distrust of public broadcasting in particular," says political scientist Dr. Anna-Sophie Heinze from the University of Trier.
However, the study also reveals another direct threat to democracy. AfD voters are not only critical of democratic institutions or the current form of democracy in Germany. A significant proportion of them reject democracy as a form of government."This result, which already came to light in the ARD Deutschlandtrend, shows the progression of anti-democratic tendencies within the party and its supporters," analyzes the survey team. Eva Walther, who researches the psychology of right-wing radicalization at the University of Trier, sees the reasons for this not only in the subjectively perceived socio-economic disadvantages of AfD voters: ,,There is a fundamentally strong dissatisfaction among AfD voters, which is also expressed in strong emotions such as anger, but also fear."
High dynamics in the party system expected for 2025 federal elections
According to the Jena-Trier study, voting behavior in the eastern German federal states points to a strengthening of the political fringes and forces critical of democracy. In contrast to the 2021 federal election, there has been a greater voter movement from the established parties to the AfD and the newly founded BSW. Voter loyalty to a particular party has always been significantly lower in eastern German states than in western German states. However, the current study shows that the AfD now has the highest proportion of regular voters.For the 2025 federal elections, this could mean that the AfD will become a popular party in eastern Germany. This will make it even more difficult to form a government in the future," says Tobias Rothmund from the University of Jena.
AfD participation in government?
There is still no end in sight to the formation of governments in the three federal states where elections were held in the fall. The study by KomRex and the University of Trier shows that the population in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg answered the question of the best coalition partner with the CDU. Only AfD supporters see the AfD as a government partner. The majority of voters of all other parties reject a coalition with the AfD. The results of the exploratory rounds will show whether the voters’ coalition wishes will prevail in the upcoming government formation in the federal states.
