Algorithm predicts which students will drop out of Math courses

In the subjects of science and technology, engineering and mathematics - known collectively as STEM subjects - up to 40 percent of students drop out of their studies in the entry phase. A research team from the University of Tübingen's Methods Center at the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences has now developed a statistical method that can be used to predict on average eight weeks in advance whether students will terminate their studies. The new algorithm also represents a general methodological step forward. While making the prediction, the algorithm is able to consider the differences between individual students that already exist at the beginning of the study - such as general cognitive abilities - and to separate these from time-dependent affective states of individual students. In this way, it becomes possible to predict the probability of dropout even for students who are suitable for their course. This separation of different levels of influence could also be useful for many questions from other fields. The researchers have published their study in the journal Psychometrika .